With the advantages being clear on the technology, we know that HJT is definitely the thing to look forward in years to come. The solar PV community has been voicing the same idea with majority manufacturers having already announced plans of the shift. Let us understand first what the future holds for HJT. Three technologies i.e. PERx, TopCon & HJT are compared in terms of their power output & Bifaciality (refer Figure 4). For simplification, we have normalized the power output to M6 144 cell based solar module. The current power output of all the three technologies are 450 Wp+ with the delta being 10 Watts between PERx & TopCon and TopCon & HJT respectively. However, with the PERx technology reaching efficiency limits, the maximum enhancement in power output would only be around 20 Wp per module. Comparing this to TopCon & HJT, the maximum enhancement currently stands at 25 Wp per module with this number going up to as much as ~40 Wp for HJT based module. Further, even in terms of Bifaciality, the PERx technology has almost reached upper limit at around 75%. Compare that to HJT, where maximum Bifaciality of around 95% is expected making it a strong contender for all the future modules.

Figure 4: Normalized power output & bifaciality for M6 module from different technologies (Source: ITRPV)

The current nameplate capacity vs actual production of HJT modules is expected to stay somewhere at 50% in 2021. However with many manufacturers jumping in, the total announced HJT capacity cumulates to 50+ GW. Further with the capacity expansion spread out almost equally around the world, we expect that HJT technology would pick up pace by the mid of this decade with more than 70% of the world's PV capacity turning to HJT.

Figure 5: Capacity vs actual production & country wise production capacity announced for HJT (Source: Taiyang news)

With all the given technical and commercial advantages, HJT definitely seems to be the technology of the future. And with further new cell architecture almost utilizing HJT in them, we strongly believe that the future of solar PV is HJT.